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What matters for long-run returns is getting the direction right, and the Fed’s fine-tuning misses the point
对于长期回报来说，重要的是找到正确的方向，而美联储的微调没有抓住重点
By James Mackintosh ‣‣
A rise in consumer sentiment is an indication that the economy is getting better. PHOTO: NATHAN HOWARD/BLOOMBERG NEWS消费者信心的上升表明经济正在好转。照片：内森霍华德/彭博新闻社
It’s easy to get caught up in whether the Federal Reserve will raise rates 0.25 or 0.5 percentage point (probably the latter) or whether it will start cutting again by the end of the year (almost certainly not), and invest accordingly. But it is time to step back. Only rarely should investors care about what the Fed says or even what it does at its meetings.人们很容易陷入美联储是否会加息0.25或0.5个百分点（可能是后者），或者是否会在年底前再次开始降息（几乎可以肯定不会），并相应地进行投资。但现在是后退一步的时候了。投资者很少关心美联储的言论，甚至关心美联储在会议上的所作所为。
What really matters for long-run returns is getting the direction of travel right, and that comes from the economy, where the Fed’s fine-tuning misses the point. Investors are already looking further ahead. The bull case is that the direction of travel has changed.对于长期回报来说，真正重要的是正确前进的方向，而这来自经济，美联储的微调没有抓住重点。投资者已经在展望未来。牛市的情况是行进方向已经改变。
Rather than preparing for still-higher interest rates, markets are well along in pricing an economy with lower but fairly sticky inflation, higher-for-longer rates and continued growth. Stocks are up, Treasury yields are broadly stable at what used to count as a high level, and risk premiums on junk bonds are falling fast. These all point in the same direction, and it’s a bullish one.市场没有为更高的利率做准备，而是很好地定价了一个通胀较低但相当粘性、长期利率更高和持续增长的经济体。股市上涨，美国国债收益率大致稳定在过去被认为是高水平的水平，垃圾债券的风险溢价正在迅速下降。这些都指向同一个方向，这是一个看涨的方向。
Stocks Have Little Cushion for RiskStocks look very expensive compared with Treasury inflation-protected securities.S&P 500 earnings yield minus 10-year TIPS yieldSource: RefinitivNote: Monthly data through Monday
2005'10'15'20345678910pct. pts
There is plenty of evidence that the economy is getting better, rather than worse. The Atlanta Fed’s GDPNow estimate of the current quarter drawn from data released so far puts growth close to 2%, way higher than the slight fall economists predicted at the start of April. Consumer sentiment is up, according to preliminary figures from the University of Michigan, while inflation expectations are down. Even the highly interest rate sensitive home-construction market is showing signs of life.有大量证据表明，经济正在好转，而不是更糟。亚特兰大联储根据迄今公布的数据对本季度的GDP预测显示，经济增长接近2%，远高于经济学家在4月初预测的轻微下降。根据密歇根大学的初步数据，消费者信心上升，而通胀预期下降。即使是对利率高度敏感的房屋建筑市场也显示出复苏的迹象。
The question is: Did those who waited on the sidelines miss the best part of the recent market rally? And has it gone too far? It certainly has gone a long way: Stocks are up more than 20% from October’s low for one amateurish definition of a new bull market. The extra yield offered by junk bonds over Treasurys is within a whisker of the average for 2019, before the pandemic. And the extra earnings yield (earnings/price) offered by the S&P 500 above Treasurys is shrinking fast.问题是：那些在观望旁观望的人是否错过了近期市场反弹的最佳部分？是不是走得太远了？它肯定有很长的路要走：股市从10月份的低点上涨了20%以上，这是对新牛市的一个业余定义。垃圾债券相对于美国国债提供的额外收益率与大流行前的2019年平均水平相差无几。标准普尔500指数在国债之上提供的额外收益收益率（收益/价格）正在迅速萎缩。
Speculative Stock ComebackChange since end of AprilSource: FactSet
May 2023June-20-10010203040506070%TeslaGameStopARK Innovation ETFPlug Power
Sure, there are signs that investors suffering from FOMO, fear of missing out, are rushing to get back into stocks, pushing some of the bets on artificial intelligence to silly levels. And perennial gambling-chip stocks are doing well again, with Tesla up 61%, GameStop up 32% and Plug Power up 20% since the start of May.当然，有迹象表明，患有FOMO的投资者，害怕错过，正急于重返股市，将一些对人工智能的押注推到了愚蠢的水平。常年赌博筹码股再次表现良好，特斯拉上涨61%，GameStop上涨32%，Plug Power上涨20%。
Another leg to the bullish story is that the equity rally is broadening out from the seven or eight Big Tech AI plays that held up the S&P 500 for the first five months of the year. The Russell 2000 index of smaller companies and the equal-weighted S&P 500, which minimizes the effect of the huge tech stocks, have both outpaced the Big Tech leaders so far this month.看涨故事的另一条腿是，股市反弹正在从今年前五个月支撑标准普尔500指数的七八个大型科技公司AI游戏中扩大。本月到目前为止，罗素2000小公司指数和同等权重的标准普尔500指数（S&P 500）将大型科技股的影响降至最低，都超过了大型科技公司的领导者。
Market Broadens OutChange this monthSource: FactSet
Russell 2000S&P 500June 1June 200246810%
As investors who were staying out of stocks realize they missed the change of economic direction, there should be more to come.随着那些不看股票的投资者意识到他们错过了经济方向的改变，应该会有更多。
The bearish story is that FOMO never lasts and that the economic revival is far less of a sure thing than it seems. It isn’t that bears have spotted something everyone else has missed. It is just that many of the same economic concerns that earlier this year led economists to predict recession are still in place:看跌的故事是，FOMO永远不会持续下去，经济复苏远没有看起来那么确定。这并不是说熊发现了其他人都错过的东西。只是今年早些时候导致经济学家预测经济衰退的许多经济担忧仍然存在：
- The lagged effect of rate rises. No one knows how long it will take to hit the economy, but defaults are already ticking up among those most exposed to trouble, notably on credit-card debt, auto loans, parts of commercial real estate and weak companies with variable-rate loans. So far, defaults and delinquencies have merely returned to prepandemic norms, but more debt at higher rates creates the risk of a much higher level of sour loans.
加息的滞后效应。没有人知道冲击经济需要多长时间，但最容易陷入困境的人的违约率已经在上升，特别是在信用卡债务、汽车贷款、部分商业房地产和拥有可变利率贷款的疲软公司方面。到目前为止，违约和拖欠只是恢复到大流行前的常态，但更高利率的更多债务会产生更高水平的不良贷款的风险。
- The cash pile that savers built up during the pandemic has mostly run off, the most-likely reason for the rise in defaults. People who have been living off Covid-era savings will have to reduce consumption.
储户在疫情期间积累的现金储备大部分已经耗尽，这是违约率上升的最可能原因。一直靠新冠时代储蓄为生的人将不得不减少消费。
- Zombie banks might cut back lending to rebuild their capital buffers, to avoid issuing new shares. They are also likely to pass on higher deposit rates to borrowers, at a time when banks were already tightening lending standards for households and businesses. Less credit is bad for the economy.
僵尸银行可能会削减贷款以重建资本缓冲，以避免发行新股。他们还可能将更高的存款利率转嫁给借款人，而当时银行已经在收紧家庭和企业的贷款标准。信贷减少对经济不利。
- Finally, the data aren’t as good as the market mood. Manufacturing surveys show the sector is suffering and might get worse, with inventories rising and new orders falling. The jobs market is still strong, but new weekly claims for unemployment benefits are up almost 50% from September’s low and higher than the highest reached in 2018 or 2019.
最后，数据不如市场情绪好。制造业调查显示，该行业正在遭受损失，并可能变得更糟，库存增加，新订单下降。就业市场依然强劲，但每周新申请失业救济金人数较9月份的低点上升了近50%，高于2018年或2019年达到的最高水平。
